There’s no shortage of loud opinions about New York City’s economy. Most are political but few grounded in what’s being communicated by businesses and capital in the NYC market.
One place where behavior is hard to fake is the Midtown office market. In 2025, Manhattan recorded over 32 million square feet of office leasing activity, the highest annual total on record. Midtown alone accounted for nearly 20 million square feet. At the same time, asking rents moved only modestly, up about 1% year over year.
The combination of high activity with stable pricing is typically a sign of healthy market function. Companies are making deliberate decisions: renewing early, expanding selectively, and committing to space that supports how they operate.
Roughly one quarter of all leasing activity last year came from lease renewals, with an even higher share in Midtown. That matters because that cash flow creates predictability for Landlords, reduces risk and enables liquidity - and that’s where the second-order effect shows up.
As leasing stabilizes and renewals increase, capital is re-engaging (a regional banker told me they are once-again underwriting office assets after swearing them off 24-months ago). Buildings are being repriced realistically, transactions are restarting, and owners are bringing space to market in a more sequenced, rational way rather than all at once under distress.
We’re seeing fewer forced decisions and more orderly ones: recapitalizations, extensions, selective sales. That kind of liquidity isn’t flashy, but it’s healthy. It allows owners to invest, tenants to plan, and the market to clear gradually.
None of this denies the city’s challenges which are always present but it does reflect something important which is that the core economic engine is functioning.
So in short, Leases are being signed. Capital is finding its footing. And despite everything you’d expect that would be holding Midtown back - it just keeps chugging along.
Until next month,
Ben
Ben Blumenthal
Principal Broker | Noah & Co.
For the rest of our January 2026 Newsletter, click here.